State Political Profile: Missouri
U.S. Senate
Republican Sen. Jim Talent is facing a strong re-election challenge from Democrat Claire McCaskill, the state auditor. A Research 2000 poll in late June showed McCaskill leading with 49 percent to 43 percent for Talent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
In the Aug. 8 primary, Talent defeated four unknown challengers with 88 percent of the vote, while McCaskill beat an equally unknown opponent with 80 percent of the vote.
Talent is fighting to keep the seat he won in a special election in 2002, when he defeated Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan, widow of former Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, by just over 1 percent of the vote.
McCaskill was heavily recruited to run by Democrats who believe Talent is vulnerable. She lost a 2004 bid for governor to Republican Matt Blunt by less than 3 percentage points. Given their past campaigns, both candidates have near total statewide name recognition.
The state has trended Republican recently, with President Bush winning the state by three points in 2000 and seven points in 2004. Both senators are Republican, along with five out of nine U.S. House members. The state House and Senate are also controlled by Republicans.
But most statewide races since 2000 have been decided by 3 points or less. And Talent is not as well-known around Missouri as Kit Bond, the state's senior senator.
Talent is considered a quietly successful, somewhat wonkish lawmaker, better at discussing intricate policy matters than he is on the stump. He can boast a number of legislative accomplishments, including passage of a renewable fuels standard in the energy bill that will boost production of ethanol and bio-diesel fuels and benefit the state's farmers.
Despite his clean image, Talent may suffer from national fallout to the GOP over a series of lobbying scandals in Washington and the continuing challenges of the war in Iraq. There's also the historical precedent for the party of an incumbent president in his second term to suffer losses during midterm elections.
During her unsuccessful bid for governor, McCaskill did well in the state's urban areas of St. Louis and Kansas City, but lost rural areas. This time, she is tailoring her campaign message to win more of the rural vote, including announcing her candidacy in the tiny town of Houston, Mo. She has spent months traveling in an RV to campaign in smaller cities in southeast and southwest Missouri.
Talent has a major financial advantage. Campaign finance reports show Talent had $7.1 million in the bank at the end of June, compared with $2.8 million for McCaskill. Talent already has begun using that money to blanket the state with early ads playing up his ability to work with Democrats to get things done.
U.S. House
All nine members of Congress, five Republicans and four Democrats, appear to be safe this year.
Ballot Issues
Missouri has two high-profile ballot initiatives in November that could have a spill-over effect for other top races.
Foremost is a proposed constitutional amendment that would guarantee that all federally allowed stem cell research and treatments could occur in Missouri. It would protect embryonic stem cell research, including a cloning procedure known as somatic cell nuclear transfer, which opponents contend results in the creation and destruction of human life at its earliest stages. The ballot measure is backed by a coalition of medical researchers, patients' advocates and business leaders who were upset by state legislative efforts to ban somatic cell nuclear transfer. Missouri has strong research centers in Kansas City, St. Louis and at the University of Missouri-Columbia. The costly campaign for the measure is being financed largely by the founders of the Stowers Institute for Medical Research in Kansas City, which conducts stem cell research. Polls show strong public support for the amendment, but it has caused division within the Republican base -- particularly among anti-abortion groups that oppose it and the business groups that support it. After months of not taking a position, Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Talent came out against the stem cell amendment. His challenger, Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill, has been a vocal supporter of it. Republican Gov. Matt Blunt also supports the amendment. And the coalition's co-chairman is former Republican Sen. John Danforth.
A second ballot issue would raise Missouri's minimum wage from the federal minimum of $5.15 an hour to $6.50 an hour on Jan. 1, and then increase it each year thereafter to keep pace with inflation. The initiative is backed by unions, McCaskill and Democrats in general. It's campaign has been financed partially by the Democratic state auditor candidate, Susan Montee. Talent so far has not taken a position on the ballot measure. An opposition group is being formed by various business associations.
-- Associated Press
