State Political Profile: New Jersey
U.S. Senate
New Jersey's hot race this year continues to be a close one between Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez and Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. Both easily won their primary elections on June 6. A Quinnipiac University poll released a week after the primary showed Menendez with a 7-point lead -- a 43-to-36 percent advantage (the margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points).
Both men will need to woo the state's large bloc of unaffiliated voters to win in November. Kean, a moderate Republican who is pro-choice and pro-embryonic stem cell research, also will need to convince New Jersey's conservative voters who make up 30 to 35 percent of the GOP party, to go to the polls in November. Kean's conservative primary challenger, John Ginty, has said Kean will have to give conservatives reasons why they should support him.
Neither candidate is well-known to statewide voters. Menendez has name recognition in northern New Jersey, having served as a congressman for 14 years. He was appointed to the Senate in January by Gov. Jon Corzine to serve out the remaining year of his term.
Kean Jr. has the advantage of sharing the same name as his famous father, Thomas Kean, one of New Jersey's most popular governors and also the former chairman of the Sept. 11 commission. Menendez has history on his side: New Jersey has not elected a Republican U.S. senator since 1972.
All 13 of New Jersey's congressional seats are up for election this year.
With Menendez in the Senate, his House seat (New Jersey's 13th Congressional District) will remain open until after the November general election. Former state Assembly speaker Albio Sires won the Democratic primary, and will run against Republican John Guarini, who has never held political office. Sires also won the special election and unless there's a write-in challenger in November, Sires will serve out the remainder of Menendez's term, from November to January. Sires, who was born in Cuba and did not come to the United States until he was 11, is expected to defeat Guarini in this heavily Democratic district.
Of the other 12 seats -- six Democratic and six Republican -- national Democrats hope President Bush's plummeting approval ratings and scandals involving several Republicans including former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay will taint some of the state's GOP congressmen.
Two are major targets this year: Rep. Scott Garrett of the 5th District and Rep. Mike Ferguson of the 7th District. These two were also major Democratic targets in 2004. These two are considered the more conservative of the state's GOP members.
Garrett's Democratic challenger is Paul Aronsohn, who served in the Clinton administration and in former New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey's administration. Aronsohn has been able to raise money through his Clinton contacts and is slightly behind Garrett in campaign funds. Garrett's campaign earlier this year sent out a fundraiser notice saying the race was on the National Republican Congressional Committee's watch list. The NRCC would not comment on whether they are concerned about Garrett's district.
Ferguson's Democratic challenger is state Assemblywoman Linda Stender. Stender has been helped greatly by her local Democratic committee in fundraising. If elected, Stender would be the only woman in the state's delegation. New Jersey's last congresswoman was Marge Roukema, who retired in 2002 after serving 22 years in the House.
It will be difficult to knock off any of the sitting congressmen, all of whom won re-election in 2004 with more than 55 percent of the vote.
Two congressmen Democrats Robert Andrews and Donald Payne are running unopposed.
-- Associated Press
