State Political Profile: California
Governor
The 2006 California governor's race is closer than it might appear from the outside, given that it pits a Hollywood superstar against the nerdy state treasurer who wants to raise taxes.
The primary problem for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is that he alienated voters last year with a chaotic and unpopular special election. Unions spent $100 million on a coordinated campaign against him, and his popularity plunged with Democrats and non-partisan voters.
The governor is making strides to win those voters back, but it's not easy. Unlike the 2003 recall election, which was essentially an open primary, this year's race will be highly partisan. Many Democrats may be unwilling to cross over and vote for the governor. At the same time, conservatives are disenchanted with him and may be dispirited because of what's happening on the national political scene. That could depress Schwarzenegger's vote in his own party.
Still, he has a weak opponent in Phil Angelides, who plays poorly on television and has dared to open up the subject of raising taxes, albeit on the wealthy and corporations.
Angelides was wounded in the Democratic primary, which devolved into a bitter television ad war. His independently wealthy opponent, state Controller Steve Westly, spent millions depicting him as a greedy and ruthless developer. He also accused Angelides of wanting to raise taxes on the middle class.
Those are all charges that can serve Schwarzenegger well as he seeks to dampen enthusiasm for his opponent. He has already taken up a charge first brought by Westly that Angelides wants to raise taxes by $10 billion. We can expect attacks on Angelides' environmental record to follow, if the race remains close. Angelides' past a developer could neutralize the advantage that Democrats traditionally hold on this key issue. Democrats, meanwhile, will seek to link Schwarzenegger to Bush, who is deeply unpopular in California.
U.S. Senate
Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, often ranked in polls as California's most popular politician, is expected to cruise to re-election as she seeks her third full term. She will face retired state Sen. Richard Mountjoy Sr. in November, but he is not expected to mount a credible challenge. Feinstein, the former mayor of San Francisco, has wide appeal among Democrats and independents, and typically wins a sizable share of the Republican vote.
U.S. House
California's June primary produced predictable results, filling one open seat with a Republican in a heavily GOP district and handing victory to incumbents, including a few who faced spirited opposition.
The outcomes leave the incumbents in California's 53 House districts headed for likely victory in November, the result of a bipartisan redistricting deal reached after the 2000 census. The agreement created safe seats in all the state's congressional districts -- 33 Democratic and 20 Republican.
The one vacancy in the June primary was in the heavily Republican 50th Congressional District in San Diego. The seat was formerly held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who resigned in a bribery scandal and was sentenced to prison. The race between Republican Brian Bilbray, a former congressman, and Democrat Francine Busby, a school board member, was being watched as a possible barometer of voter discontent over Republican ethics scandals. But Bilbray emerged victorious in an election that some observers said turned on voters' attitude toward illegal immigration. The June contest was to decide who will fill the remaining seven months of Cunningham's term, but Bilbray is expected to coast to re-election in November.
Two high-profile Republican congressmen, Rep. John Doolittle of Roseville and Rep. Richard Pombo of Tracy, survived primary challenges. Doolittle brushed off criticism of his ties to former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who pleaded guilty in an ongoing influence-peddling investigation, to easily defeat Auburn Mayor Mike Holmes. He faces Democrat Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force officer and first-time candidate, in the November general election.
Pombo had come under heavy criticism for his environmental views, specifically his attempts to reform the Endangered Species Law. That prompted former congressman Pete McCloskey, who helped write the original law, to enter the Republican primary. McCloskey, a moderate, also criticized Pombo's ethics, noting that he received thousands of dollars from Abramoff and his clients. But McCloskey couldn't compete with Pombo's fundraising edge and lost by a substantial margin. Pombo will face wind energy engineer Jerry McNerney in November. McNerney lost to Pombo in 2004 and was not the Democrats' candidate of choice. The party had hoped to match Pombo against United Airlines pilot Steve Filson in the general election, but McNerney's grassroots support gave him a wide victory margin in the Democratic primary.
-- Associated Press
